Implied probability
The win chance a moneyline implies, before the sportsbook's margin is taken out.
Formula
favourite: -odds / (-odds + 100); underdog: 100 / (odds + 100)Both sides' implied probabilities add up to more than one. The excess is the book's margin, often called the vig. Divide each side by the total to get a fair, margin-free probability.
get_odds returns the implied probability for each fighter at each book's closing price, with the margin still in it, so the raw market is visible.
The common mistake
Comparing a raw implied probability with a model's probability overstates the model's edge by the size of the margin.
Where to get it
Related
Implied probability from the API
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